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Predicting catastrophic transitions

Complex systems, such as the earth's climate, coral reefs, oceans and socioeconomic systems, seem to respond little to gradual change until a critical tipping point is reached, after which the system may collapse completely. After such collapse, the original state of the system is hard to restore. Recovery time after small disturbances may predict coming collapse.

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Keywords: predicting, catastrophic, transitions, transition

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Similar news on "Predicting catastrophic transitions":

1. Massive California fires consistent with climate change
   10-23-2007 · EurekAlert!
   The catastrophic fires that are sweeping Southern California are consistent with what climate change models have been predicting for years, experts say, and they may be just a prelude to many more such events in the future -- as vegetation grows heavier than usual and then ignites during prolonged drought periods.
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2. Under pressure, vanadium won't turn down the volume
   02-20-2007 · EurekAlert!
   Scientists at Carnegie's Geophysical Laboratory have discovered a new type of phase transition -- a change from one form to another -- in vanadium, a metal that is commonly added to steel to make it harder and more durable. Under extremely high pressures, pure vanadium crystals change their shape but do not take up less space as a result, unlike most other elements that undergo phase transitions.
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3. Nuclear security: Diaster waiting to happen
   10-25-2006 · EurekAlert!
   The world's oldest storage center for weapons-grade uranium in Oak Ridge, Tenn., has decaying storage facilities and doubtful security. The dangers are revealed in a detailed study of safety at the complex where there have been 22 fires and explosions recorded since 1997. During these incidences workers have been injured and contaminated, but a major fire would have catastrophic consequences to the thousands of people living nearby.
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4. Humans fostering forest-destroying disease
   08-15-2007 · EurekAlert!
   Paradoxically, the spread of Sudden Oak Death -- a potentially catastrophic tree killing disease that first invaded California in the 1990s -- is being encouraged by human landscape management practices that have increased the size and density of west coast oak forests, according to a forthcoming study. Research shows that other human activities may be involved as well.
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5. Towards predicting late-stage radiation toxicity
   10-30-2006 · EurekAlert!
   Radiation is a brutal and in many cases necessary part of cancer therapy. A small fraction of patients develop severe late radiation toxicity, months or years after their treatment. A new study now suggests that in the future scientists might be able to tell who is at higher risk for such late toxicity and adjust treatments accordingly.
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6. Repeat bone mineral density scans do not appear helpful for predicting fractures in most older women
   01-22-2007 · EurekAlert!
   Repeating a bone mineral density (BMD) scan up to eight years after an initial BMD appears to provide little additional benefit for predicting fractures among older postmenopausal women, according to a report in the Jan. 22 issue of Archives of Internal Medicine, one of the JAMA/Archives journals.
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7. Woods Hole Research Center scientists using remote sensing tools to predict bird species richness
   05-14-2007 · EurekAlert!
   Woods Hole Research Center scientists have taken a novel approach to studying biological diversity by making use of laser remote sensing (lidar). WHRC scientists examined the relationships between bird species richness and habitat metrics derived from lidar data acquired by aircraft. They then explored the efficacy of predicting bird richness and abundance based on these metrics. The first phase of this research focuses on results from study sites in the Patuxent Wildlife Refuge in Maryland.
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8. Use of certain lipid measures not more effective in predicting coronary heart disease
   08-14-2007 · EurekAlert!
   The lipid measure apolipoprotein B: apo A-I ratio is not a better predictor of coronary heart disease risk than traditional lipid ratios that include total cholesterol and HDL-C, according to a study in the Aug. 15 issue of JAMA.
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9. What China will want: the future intentions of a rising power
   10-23-2007 · EurekAlert!
   Uncertainty over China's future strategic goals is pervasive in policy circles today. But while China's growing influence has profound consequences for the international system, understanding the ideas embraced by China's leadership about its foreign policy goals is essential to predicting future Chinese intentions.
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10. Doctors uncertain about approaches to care for heart failure patients, SLU study finds
    02-11-2008 · EurekAlert!
    New Saint Louis University research found that difficulty predicting death and lack of knowledge regarding treatment options undermine care for terminally-ill heart failure patients.
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